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Analysts Expect Strong Fourth Quarter from Internet Stocks
Make Money Online By Dave Porter
For the fourth quarter, the company expects revenue to be up approximately 8% sequentially from the third quarter level, and it expects gross margins to be in the mid 60% range. Fourth quarter total operating expenses are expected to be approximately the same as in the third quarter. On a per share basis, GAAP net income is expected to be a loss of approximately four cents per share in the fourth quarter.
Internet Business Opportunity (AXcess News) Reno - Analysts are expecting a strong fourth quarter from Internet companies, especially with the boast in online advertising that was experienced in late 2005. Piper Jaffray's Safa Rashtchy said his top picks for the fourth quarter were Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), ValueClick (Nasdaq: VCLK) and Tom Online (Nasdaq: TOMO).
For the first quarter of 2003, the company expects revenue to be flat versus the fourth quarter 2002 level. First quarter gross margin is expected to be in the mid 60% range, and first quarter total operating expenses are expected to increase approximately $1 million from the fourth quarter 2002 level. On a per share basis, first quarter 2003 GAAP net income is expected to be a loss of approximately five cents per share. For the full year 2003, the company expects total revenue to be approximately $20 million, a 22% increase over 2002 revenue.
Free Money Rashtchy said Piper Jaffray expects at least 40% of the Internet companies they follow to exceed guidance and street estimates with the rest falling in line with expectations.
The company expects postage revenue to be up slightly in the fourth quarter 2001 versus the third quarter. Gross margins are expected to be above 70% in the fourth quarter as labor costs decrease and the efficiency in customer support operations increases. Sales and marketing and R&D expenses are expected to be flat with third quarter levels, and G&A is expected to be down another half million from Q3 levels. Cash EPS is expected to continue to improve from the third quarter to a loss of two cents.
Work At Home Business While Piper Jaffray is bullish in media/search companies the investment bankers are more cautious on ecommerce, "as we believe valuations on most are stretched and the rising online advertising costs are impacting margins, especially the small-cap eCommerce names."
For the fourth quarter of 2003, the company expects revenue to be approximately $5.6 million. Gross margin is expected to be in the mid 50% range. Total operating expense for the fourth quarter is expected to increase by approximately two million from the third quarter level due to an anticipated increase in fourth quarter general and administrative expense, and due to plans to increase fourth quarter sales and marketing spend. On a per share basis, fourth quarter 2003 GAAP net income is expected to be a loss of approximately nine cents per share. For the full fiscal year 2004, the company expects total revenue to increase approximately 25% over 2003 levels, gross margin is expected to be approximately sixty percent, and total net loss is expected to be approximately $0.20 per share.
Free Online Affiliate Program On their outlook toward Internet search companies, Rashtchy said, "We expect search to provide upside to estimates, with sequential revenue growth of 20%-25% on average. We expect growth to come from strong volume and pricing gains as well as increased coverage/conversion rates. We believe market-share movements are modest, with Google continuing to gain share and Yahoo essentially maintaining share. We expect Google to exceed Street estimates of 22.5% sequential growth- our estimate calls for 24.5% sequential growth. We believe Google's strength will come from increased monetization, market share gains, and increased AdSense penetration. We look for Yahoo to report search revenues in line with our search estimate of 20%quarter-over-quartergrowth."
During the fourth quarter, the company bought approximately 4.4 million shares for approximately $17.5 million, reducing the fourth quarter ending shares outstanding to 44.5 million from 48.8 million at the end of the previous quarter. On October 24, 2002, the company announced that its Board of Directors had authorized a six month repurchase program of up to $30 million of its common stock, and the fourth quarter 2002 repurchase of stock was done under that program.
Auction Coin Money Paper Rashtchy believes that Internet companies in the online media/advertising services sector to report solid quarters and that for the most part, estimates for the year remain conservative. "We expect most of the smaller-cap media names including CNET, Homestore, RealNetworks, and Jupitermedia, to have in-line results with neutral reactions, said Rashtchy.
Franchise Business Opportunity Piper Jaffray looks for Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO) to grow 22% this year.
Best Free Online Affiliate "Our top advertising services pick is ValueClick as we believe the valuation remains attractive (15x 2006 EBITDA vs. 20x for peer group), we expect solid upside in 4Q, and we expect upward revisions to 2006 estimates. Our recent channel checks on ValueClick signaled strength in both its affiliate marketing and ad network segments," said Rashtchy.
Blogging Money Thebillivard Piper Jaffray saw Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN) as having a tough time in the eCommerce arena, saying its shares were already fully valued. But Rashtchy see Digital River (Nasdaq: DRIV) as a play. "We would also be positively inclined to accumulate Digital River in the eCommerce space given our expectations for upside combined with an attractive valuation and potential for continued short covering."
Best Home Based Business Overall, Piper Jaffray's lead Internet analyst is quite bullish on the sector. So far, his insight has been quite good and his firm was the first to upgrade their outlook on Google this year, which fueled a buying frenzy that anxious Internet stock investors were just waiting for someone to validate so they could jump in. AXcess News follows Rashtchy for his logic and conservative outlook toward Internet stocks in general, which is we often outline their viewpoint in our technology news.
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